Forecast: Fewer foreclosures on horizon

Forecast: Fewer foreclosures on horizon

WASHINGTON – Dec. 10, 2010 – U.S. credit bureau TransUnion predicted Thursday the number of delinquent mortgage accounts would drop by nearly 20 percent next year.

The number of delinquent accounts – those with payments 60 days past due – is predicted to fall to 4.98 percent by the end of 2011 from 6.89 percent at the end of 2009.

“This is a welcome contrast to the year-over-year increases of 54 percent between 2006 and 2007, 53 percent between 2007 and 2008 and 50 percent between 2008 and 2009,” TransUnion said in a press release.

Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion’s financial services business unit, said the decrease in delinquencies could be attributed to “a slowly improving unemployment picture and continued stabilization in housing markets.”

“While there is continued price pressure in many markets, we expect a rise in property values along with some stabilization of values in those states and markets hardest hit by the recession,” he said.

TransUnion said Nevada would see a 24.77 percent drop in its delinquency rate next year while Arizona’s rate would drop 24.27 percent. In Florida, the rate would drop 23.9 percent.

“Interestingly, the states projected to experience the greatest decrease in mortgage delinquencies – Nevada, Arizona and Florida – are the same areas expected to have the highest 60-day mortgage delinquency rates at the end of next year,” TransUnion said.

The states most in need of improvement, in other words, are expected to experience the highest rates of improvement.

Copyright © United Press International 2010

 

Strong rebound in pending home sales

 

Strong rebound in pending home sales

WASHINGTON – Dec. 2, 2010 – Pending home sales jumped 10.4 percent in October, showing another positive uptrend since bottoming in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator, rose to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009, which was the highest level since May 2006 when it hit 112.6.

The latest surge also reflects market strength, since buyers had an additional push to close quickly in October 2009 to qualify for one version of the first-time homebuyer tax credit that expired in November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

The data also surprised economists who had expected a decline in pending home sales given current troubles within the housing market. However, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says excellent housing affordability conditions drew in more homebuyers.

“It is welcoming to see a solid double-digit percentage gain, but activity needs to improve further to reach healthy, sustainable levels,” Yun says. “The housing market clearly is in a recovery phase and will be uneven at times, but the improving job market and consequential boost to household formation will help the recovery process going into 2011. More importantly, a return to more normal loan underwriting standards and removal of unnecessary underwriting fees for very low risk borrowers is needed and could quickly help in the housing and economic recovery.”

Recent loan performance data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac clearly demonstrates very low default rates on recently originated mortgages – much lower that the vintages of 2002 and 2003 before the housing boom.

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 19.6 percent to 71.3 in October but is 27.3 percent below the tax credit peak in October 2009. In the Midwest, the index surged 27.3 percent in October to 81.7 but is 24.8 percent below a year ago.

Pending home sales in the South rose 7.1 percent to an index of 93.8 but are 18.4 percent below October 2009. In the West, the index slipped 0.4 percent to 104.3 and is 15.6 percent below a year ago.

Near term, Yun expects home sales to continue climbing from their cyclical low this past summer.

“Even so, we now have some consumer concerns regarding the mortgage interest deduction, an important component in housing affordability,” Yun says.

© 2010 Florida Realtors®